Political influence on homicide reports under civil conflict

This study examines the relationship between political ideology and the reliability of homicide data in countries affected by local conflicts. Using a regression discontinuity design approach in the context of the Colombian conflict, it finds strong evidence of political bias and potential manipulation in homicide reporting. Specifically, the number of homicides by rebel troops significantly increases following close-run elections when incumbent mayors share the opposite ideology. No such impact is observed for other groups. These findings suggest either retaliatory actions by rebels or deliberate record alterations for political purposes. This study highlights the politicization and distortions in reporting homicide data during local conflicts, emphasizing the need to consider political influences when analyzing crime statistics in conflict-affected regions.